Water ExiaTier 1
at Ascent Las Vegas
decks
13
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
108
50-43-15
overall winrate
53.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.3%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1345
· median 1385
· range 994–1632
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1218
Q3 1417
1694
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
31% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 14 | 7-4-3 | 60.7% | 58.3% | 66.4% | +6.8 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 30.8% | -11.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.4% | +17.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.2% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 54.7% | +2.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.2% | +12.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 63.6% | +7.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.0% | 9 | 4-3-2 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 51.2% | +0.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -4.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 54.8% | +3.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +4.2 |
| Water Fractal | 3.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.2% | -14.8 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.4% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 31.2% | -10.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.5% | +20.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -0.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 28.8% | -13.5 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.1% | +3.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Chess | 1.2% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 54.4% | +3.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +24.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 63.3% | +8.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.9 |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 26.5% | -17.5 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 31.3% | -29.9 |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Silvie | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 23.5% | -19.8 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.0 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
The 13 public Water Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Benediction Angel, Angel Attendant, Angelic Channeling. Losers more often ran: Enchanted Fete, Nullifying Lantern, Topsy Decree.
Benediction Angel
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Angel Attendant
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Angelic Channeling
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Gentle Respite
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Enchanted Fete
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Nullifying Lantern
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Topsy Decree
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Song of Frost
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Crimson Prescience
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 53 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benediction Angel | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Enchanted Fete | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Void's Cloak | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Shademist Priestess | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crimson Rupture | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Return to the Archive | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Angel Attendant | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Angelic Channeling | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Engulf | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Spirit of Fortuitous Water | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Rictus Tiding | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chime of Endless Dreams | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Seething Intercession | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Pearled Prayer | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Transfusive Aura | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Regenerate | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Relentless Outburst | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Exia Sight | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Waves | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eventide Spear | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Scarlet Tassel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tome of Abyssal Heaven | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |